Overcome by Hubris, Netanyahu Hopes the Israel-Hamas Deal Will Collapse - Israel News - Haaretz.com
So far, the hostage deal is progressing smoothly. The chaos that reigned Thursday during Hamas' hostage-release ceremonies in Khan Yunis was replaced Saturday morning by an obvious effort to restore order. In doing so, Hamas showcased its control of the Gaza Strip.
This time, the Red Cross received the three hostages – Ofer Kalderon and Yarden Bibas of Kibbutz Nir Oz, who were handed over in Khan Yunis, and Keith Siegel of Kibbutz Kfar Azza, who was handed over at the Gaza City port – without any issues.
Ofer Kalderon and his family reunite at Sheba Hospital, on Saturday.Credit: Maayan Toaf/GPO
The joy at the sight of the return of the hostages was overshadowed by the increasingly certain knowledge that Bibas is a kind of modern-day Job, who lost his family in the murderous Hamas terror attack.
- Israel will have to pay a heavy but inevitable price for hostage-release deal
- Second stage of Israel-Hamas truce talks threaten to bring up more obstacles than first
- Netanyahu is counting on Hamas to help him derail the second phase of cease-fire talks
Kalderon and Siegel are both older men, and some of their relatives and friends were killed or injured in the October 7 massacre. They themselves presumably endured harsh and abusive treatment in captivity. It's very likely that the environment where each hostage was held for most of their time in captivity – whether underground in the tunnels or in homes aboveground – affects their mental and physical condition upon their return.
The courage, resourcefulness and zest for life reflected in every image of or report on the four young female army spotters who were released last Saturday warms our hearts. Similar scenes were also captured in Kalderon's emotional meetings with family members this Saturday. But it would be excessive to expect to see this in each of the hand-offs to come, and it would better for the public to be aware of this in advance.
Meanwhile, it's clear that there are those who seek to guarantee that the next stages of the deal – there are 79 hostages, more than half of whom are dead, are still in the Strip – will not go forward. These are, predictably, the usual suspects.
Yarden Bibas with his mother at Sheba Hospital, on Saturday.Credit: IDF Spokesperson Unit
On Friday evening, an unknown political figure leaked to Channel 12 News that Israel believes Hamas will refuse to release all the living hostages in the second stage, so that they can be an insurance policy for the terror group's remaining leaders. In that event, the source claimed, Israel would resume fighting.
Using similar methods, usually through the same media outlet, members of the inner circles of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich thwarted a hostage deal at least three times over the past year. Hamas also contributed to the disruptions. The delay in the deal since July cost the lives of at least eight hostages, as well as 122 Israel Defense Forces personnel who died in combat before the cease-fire went into effect on January 19.
This time, the leaks come as Netanyahu prepares to fly to Washington on Sunday ahead of his scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday. The prime minister, who has yet to meet his promise to visit Kubbutz Nir Oz on the Gaza border, the scene of the calamity endured by the Bibas and Kalderon families, alongside many others, has recently been struck again by hubris. Netanyahu and his closest advisor, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, are quite confident that they can persuade Trump to adopt positions favorable to them in a meeting that is being called the most fateful between the two countries' heads of state in many years.
Netanyahu conveyed similar messages to Smotrich, in the hope that his Religious Zionism party will remain in the coalition and not withdraw from it at the end of the six weeks allocated for the first stage of the hostage deal.
According to these predictions, the negotiations on the next stage will collapse in any case. The deal won't go ahead, and the war will resume. Additionally, they have high hopes for Trump's obsession, at least publicly, with the idea of forcing Egypt and Jordan to take in hundreds of thousands of Gazans while the Persian Gulf states bankroll the reconstruction of the Strip. Cairo and Amman vehemently reject the proposal, but Netanyahu is optimistic.
Egypt's Foreign Minister (C) heads a meeting with ministers from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, in Cairo, on Saturday.Credit: AFP / Khaled Desouki
Behind this expectation lies an even more ambitious goal of the Israeli far right: exploiting the war to force the permanent expulsion of Palestinians from the Strip, Israel's renewed control over it and the rebuilding of Jewish settlements there.
These hopes were not abandoned even after the IDF withdrew from the Netzarim corridor last week and allowed hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to return to northern Gaza, as part of the agreement.
This return was complicated: The destruction in the north is immense, greater than many of the returnees had estimated. There's even a problem with the regular supply of drinking water in many of the communities that were destroyed. Some returnees were forced to go back to the south on account of the shortage of potable water and tents in northern Gaza.
Meanwhile, the foreign ministers of several Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, convened in Cairo on Saturday. Alongside the praise for the cease-fire and the emphasis on the need to protect the residents of the Gaza Strip "on their land" while preventing further displacement, the joint statement issued after the meeting noted that the countries support the "unalienable rights" of the Palestinian people. This also looked like a Saudi greeting to Netanyahu, on the eve of his visit to Trump.
Displaced Palestinians returning to Rafah, a day after the cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas came into effect.Credit: Mohammad Abu Samra/AP
Contrary to the hopes of Netanyahu and his partners, there are diplomatic and security figures in Israel who see the return of the hostages and the end of the fighting in Gaza as the cornerstone of Trump's moves in the Middle East. They believe that without an end to the war in the Strip, Riyadh will neither join the reconstruction efforts nor sign the massive deal with the United States that is supposed to accompany a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
The families of the hostages – those who have returned and those who are still being held captive in Gaza – are making tremendous efforts to ensure all hostages are released.
It's worth noting that in every statement, the families express immense debt to Trump and barely mention any gratitude to Netanyahu. The former stems from the awareness of the need to constantly flatter the American president, to encourage him to act. The latter is done defiantly, to keep Netanyahu from finding a way to abort the deal, but presumably also to annoy the prime minister's mouthpieces, who constantly demand recognition for his efforts. The moves vis-à-vis the White House are continuous and direct, meant to guarantee that the plight of the hostages remains on the agenda in Washington.
Even if Netanyahu thinks that he knows best, it appears there is no way to predict the Trump's next moves, for whom ambiguity and contradiction are part of his modus operandi.
The current juncture is somewhat reminiscent of the tension at the end of Trump's term in the winter of 2020, after the signing of the Abraham Accords: One wing of the administration promised – and Netanyahu's people were quick to publicize – "sovereignty on day one," meaning U.S. recognition of the annexation of West Bank settlements to Israel. But this triggered a major uproar within the Trump administration, and in the end, the anti-annexation wing prevailed. It's difficult to say what will happen this time, when the stakes are even bigger.